Russia-Africa Monitor #5 – 18-24 Nov 24

Disinformation disclosures, Liberian litigations, Russian rockets

Thank you for the interest and enthusiasm for the newsletter! After trying different names, I have settled with the short name Russia-Africa Monitor (RAM), so this will be the ‘brand’ of the newsletter from now on. If you find this to be a useful resource, make sure to share and subscribe!

18-24 November 2024

Political relations

1. Russia vetoes Sudan ceasefire resolution at UN, AFP, 18 November.

2. Malawi, Zambia speak out about Russia's influence, concerned that it’s ‘a double edge sword’, Nyasa Times, 20 November.

3. Moscow courts far-right South African cells, Africa Intelligence, 21 November. (Paywall)

4. Moscou prépare l'ouverture d'une ambassade à Lomé, Africa Intelligence, 22 November. (Paywall)

5. Patriarchs clash over expansion of Russian Orthodox Church in Africa, Church Times, 22 November.

6. Le président sénégalais Bassirou Diomaye Faye invité par Vladimir Poutine à se rendre en Russie, RFI, 23 November.

Security and defence

1. РФ и республика Конго подписали меморандум о военно-морском сотрудничестве, Interfax, 18 November.

2. Drones turcs, avions russes... Au Sahel, la guerre des airs est déclarée, Le Monde, 20 November. (Paywall)

3. Centrafrique: Poutine et Touadéra évoquent le "renforcement" de leur coopération sécuritaire, AFP, 21 November.

4. Malabo y Moscú abordan el reforzamiento de sus acuerdos con énfasis en el sector de defensa, RREG, 21 November.

5. Russia Issues Statement on Kenyan Mission in Haiti After Rejecting US Proposal, Kenya Times, 23 November.

6. At least 6 mercenaries with Russia’s Wagner group killed in an extremist attack in Mali, AP, 23 November.

7. Influences russes en Afrique: un système en phase de duplication, RFI, 24 November.

Economic relations

1. Wagner Group linked to $2.5 billion in illicit gold trading — report, Mining dot com, 18 November.

2. Russia awaiting Egypt's ratification of industrial zone agreement — minister, TASS, 18 November.

3. Russia set to launch rockets from Africa with the construction of spaceports, Business Insider Africa, 23 November.

FIMI/media

1. Russian Disinformation Targets Côte d’Ivoire, ADF, 19 November.

2. Russian language classes connect Russia and Kenya, The Star, 20 November.

3. Les confessions d’un agent repenti de la « désinformation » et des « messages haineux » de Wagner en Centrafrique, Le Monde, 21 November. (Paywall)

4. L’école de journalisme de Bamako, nouvel avatar de la stratégie de propagande russe en Afrique, Le Monde, 22 November. (Paywall)

Embassy watch

1. В Каире прошла конференция по теме сотрудничества в рамках БРИКС, TASS, 18 November.

2. International Conference on Sanctions, Business and Human Rights, 21-22 November.

3. Russian diplomat accuses West of using coercive measures to punish certain countries, TASS, 21 November.

4. Неизвестная Африка: там почти ничего не знают о России, а мы об Африке, MK, 23 November.

Inside Russia

1. Путин наградил орденом Дружбы послов РФ в Боснии и Герцеговине и странах Африки, TASS, 21 November.

Russia-Ukraine-Africa

1. South African rand falls in risk-off move after Russian nuclear comments, Reuters, 19 November.

2. SA’s leadership of G20 will not succeed ‘without engagement with Ukraine’, says ambassador, Daily Maverick, 19 November.

3. Ukraine to provide ready-to-eat meals for Ghanaian and African schools amid devastating war losses, Joy Online, 20 November.

4. Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready to share experience of fighting Wagnerites with Africa, Ukrainska Pravda, 23 November.

China-Russia-Africa

1. Китайская компания восстановит энергоснабжение алюминиевого завода в Нигерии, Metal info, 18 November.

2. Russia and China oppose changing the Kenya-led force in Haiti to a UN peacekeeping mission, AP, 21 November.

3. Rocky road for SA-US ties as Rubio takes over?, The Citizen, 22 November.

4. Donald Trump will put America first: what does that mean for Africa?, The Conversation, 22 November.

Recent publications, analysis, scholarship

1. Levinson, K. Riva, How Vladimir Putin Got Checkmated in South Africa – Takeaways for Team Trump, Friedrich Naumann Stiftung, 22 November.

Ivan’s comment

Forbidden Stories, a consortium of ten teams of investigative journalists, published this week a major investigation about Russian disinformation in the Central African Republic. The report draws from the first-hand account from Ephrem Yalinke, a close collaborator of the Prigozhin disinformation machine in CAR who escaped the country in 2024. Many fascinating reports have been published by all partners of the consortium, some of which are linked above.

As reported on RAM #3 and #4, Russia has a new covert deployment in Equatorial Guinea, under the label of African Corps. As Polish researcher Jędrzej Czerep argues, this deployment reflects the regime survival strategy of Teodoro Obiang, the long-ruling dictator of Equatorial Guinea. In the past, Obiang has tapped into foreign forces to secure his regime, including companies from Israel and the US. Reportedly, the Equatorial Guinea deployment involves 200 Russian fighters in Malabo and Bata, a substantial figure in a country of 1,7 mn people. The deployment is happening during Russia's diplomatic expansion in the country. So, a new Russian embassy is due to open in Malabo next year, Russian FSB-controlled media is active on the ground, and even the Russian Orthodox Church has began activities in the country. Why Equatorial Guinea? I will share some thoughts on this question in the coming days. Stay tuned.

Finally, Togo might be the latest rising star in Russia-Africa relations. As mentioned in RAM #4, Russia succeeded in persuading the country to join the Sochi ministerial meeting in early November, followed now by the revelation that a new Russian embassy might open in Lomé. What is in it for Togo? Perhaps aware of Moscow's large influence over the central Sahel countries, Togo sees good relations with Russia as a potential source of leverage for its commercial relations with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. At this stage, this is just speculation, but it might be something to look out for. As Jeune Afrique recently reported, Lomé wishes to expand its role as the harbour to connect the landlocked AES countries with international markets. A similar story might be happening with roaming integration between the three countries, with Lomé also playing a role there.

Finally, finally, something missed in a previous RAM is the announced opening of a new Russian embassy in Liberia. On 15 November, the Liberian government commented that this move does not reflect a ‘stregthening of relations’ with Russia. The Liberian opposition has accused President Joseph Boakai of warm relations with Moscow, including last year when Boakai was in the opposition.