The US-Russia Thaw over Africa

Some quick thoughts and speculation

Many have found the shift in US-Russia relations difficult to process, especially in Europe, which has been the target of vitriol from many key White House figures. Last week, top US and Russian diplomats met in Riyadh to hold ‘talks about talks’ about Ukraine and European security… without Ukraine or the European Union. But, indeed, if the thaw were to come to fruition, it would have global consequences, too.

Let us stress for a moment the magnitude of the US-Russia rapprochement. To speak of an alliance might be going too far, but we are yet to see the ceiling of the US-Russia thaw. Today, the White House and the Kremlin are demanding Zelensky to step down as they both claim this is a necessary step for ‘peace’. But the Riyadh talks had a wider scope, too. As the readout from the meeting summarised, in addition to discussing Ukraine, the meeting:

Lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities which will emerge from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine.

Partly driving the White House is an ideological sympathy with the ‘conservative’ Russian government, a rush to have a ceasefire in Ukraine, and a wish to ‘separate’ China and Russia à la Kissinger. Russia wants Ukraine, the whole of it, and is willing to pause its war to recoup and prepare again. As the 2025 Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service public report stated:

The Kremlin has chosen a path of long-term confrontation, committing to the mobilisation of additional societal resources to rebuild the military and achieve its reform goals. If Russia succeeds in continuing its military reform and forming the planned units, Estonia and NATO will face a Russian force posture in the coming years that poses a sustained military threat.

These are important motivations for both parties, so it is not surprising that signs of foreign policy alignment between the US and Russia are emerging.

Clearly, the new US-Russia relationship will have a regional dimension, starting with Europe but also China. But what about Africa? Are there areas of ‘mutual geopolitical interest’ for the two parties in the continent? Under Trump, one might argue that active US-Russia cooperation in Africa would be far-fetched. Africa is as low on the Trump priority list as possible, as the extinction of USAID and the continued row with South Africa show. Yet, Russia has invested heavily in its African presence, so it is high on their agenda. Here, the asymmetry plays a role as much as it does in Ukraine. Stated otherwise, the US might be disinterested in Africa, but they are interested in Russia, and since Russia is interested in Africa, well, Washington might take another look.

Let us begin with the most immediate, the ‘passive’ effects of a potential US-Russia normalisation, namely, the lifting of sanctions and breaking the taboo of openly engaging Moscow.

A US lifting of sanctions, even if partial, will re-ignite business interest in Russia. Already US investors from various sectors are in talks about (re-)entering the Russian market, so there is capital pent up and waiting for the opportunity. Part of that interest will involve African companies wanting to do business with Russia and vice versa. As a May 2022 study by Heitzing, Uche Ordu and Holtz showed, international restrictions on the Russian rouble disrupted up to 5% of all of Africa’s trade, including in sensitive sectors such as grains and fertilisers. With Russia normalised by the US, then some of those deals might come back online.

Similarly, US-Russia diplomatic normalisation will lead to emulation by other governments worldwide, as the taboo of openly engaging Moscow recedes. But this will have the least impact in Africa, as the governments of the continent were cautious not to fully alienate Russia, even when expressing support for Ukraine. For example, while the Ghanaian government attended the 2024 Peace Summit on Ukraine and voted for all UNGA resolutions condemning Russia’s war, Ghana never broke relations with Moscow. Still, high-profile diplomatic engagements like the Russia-Africa Summit or similars could gain new live as the governments of Africa no longer have to worry about falling afoul of Washington due to their Russia engagements.

In the security sphere, there are too many unknowns. The only looming space where the US-Russia thaw might have consequences is for the central Sahel juntas. Unlike France or Sweden, the US is not among the Western ‘hardliners’ concerning the military regimes of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. A rapprochement with Russia could unlock new opportunities for Washington to restart its engagements with the juntas. With deep defence budget cuts looming, institutional self-preservation might even propel AFRICOM to show itself as capable of fighting terrorism in the Sahel. Armed deployments might be out of the question, but at-will intelligence cooperation is a long-standing AFRICOM card they could play again.

What about active US-Russia cooperation in Africa? While it is not hard to imagine the consequences of a lifting of sanctions and a rehabilitation of Russia, we just do not know what Trump’s Africa policy will look like. So, to imagine US marines fighting al-Qaeda or al-Shabaab side-by-side with Afrika Corps remains indulging in a dark fantasy. But the truth is that ‘fighting against terrorism’ together with Russia was a common theme in relations with Moscow in the pre-2022 world. This is a narrative that Moscow itself has propagated and continues to do so today.

Of course, cooperating with Moscow against terrorism today would be simply outrageous. After all, in November 2022 the European Parliament declared Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. It is revealing, then, that Ukraine is not looking at the US for its covert African engagements. According to Intelligence Online, Ukrainian intelligence recently proposed to Paris to discuss options on how to respond to the pro-Russia central Sahel juntas, especially since the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. The fact that they addressed France for this sensitive topic and not Washington is revealing enough.

There are reasons to stay cautious about speculating on US-Russia relations. While the current signals might indicate a long-term trend of accord between Moscow and Washington, it is all yet to be seen. Putin could become dizzy with success and overreach, for example. In this article, I tried to focus on the least far-fetched consequences of a US-Russia thaw, focusing mostly on the ‘passive’ domain. In other areas, there are just too many unknowns. To provide an example: Sudan.

As Jeune Afrique reported [paywall] back in December 2024, diplomats in the Sudan area considered that Washington could lift its opposition to Russia building a Sudan naval base as part of Ukraine negotiations. (The Russia-Africa Digest had an article pondering the feasibility of such a deal.) From the Riyadh readout, there is no evidence that such issue-binding took place. But, alas, as reported on RAM no. 15, on 13 February the Sudanese government said that the Russian naval base was back on track. I do not believe that there is evidence to prove that the (apparent) Sudan breakthrough came to Russia thanks to Washington. This one will have to wait.

Joint press conference between Putin and Trump, 2018. Source: Kremlin.

Writing this newsletter in Estonia, I cannot but bring things back home. What implications would a US-Russia rapprochement bring for European policy in Africa? Of course, the US-Russia thaw is a mortal danger for Europe, starting with Ukraine and followed by the other European countries. This should be priority no. 1 in Brussels, the EU national capitals, as well as in Kyiv, London, Oslo, and Ankara, full stop.

But, given the above, there are grounds to believe that the US-Russia thaw will have consequences for Africa, which will shape the landscape European decision-makers face in the continent. At this stage, the best is to hope that what is written in this post stays as a dark fantasy. But hope is not a strategy. As Daniel Fiott (CSDS) wrote this week concerning the European response to Trump, Europe has always been ‘in the thick of things’. So, expect more Russia in Africa, with implications for Europe, too.